John Jaeckel: Between The Lines

First...

JJ, your succinct analysis of what these summer moves might mean for the Hawks this season is spot on: aggressive forechecking, shot blocking, north-south speed, and timely hits all add up to icing a team that will -- win or lose -- leave it all on the ice.

A lot of these aspects of the game are not glamorous as you stated. Yet they are still parts of the game that without them, a team is easier to play against. Exhibit A: the Hawks not showing up in Round 1 last post season versus the Predators.

Typo notification: Hawks were vanquished by Preds in 2017 playoffs.

It takes all kinds of critters to make farmer Vincents' fritters.

Come on October!

JJ, meant to post this in response to the softening ticket sales...


I was at Ogilvy a few weeks ago and they had an appearance of Tommy Hawk, Ice Girls, and potentially some Hawks were stopping by? At the time, I felt like this was not the move of a perennial Cup-contending team, moreso a team that is trying to spark interest in single-game ticket sales.

Again, just anecdotal stories, but the season ticket holders I know are trying to unload tickets on me this season. In past years, I haven't been able to get any tickets from any of them. Just points to softening ticket sales.

Overall, not sure if team's performance will be better or worse but do feel that the speed/forecheck/breakout model will be better-suited for today's game. I loved the Senators in the playoffs and felt like they had 4 lines that were tough SOB's to play against. Hope the Hawks can replicate.

I think the big story at year end will be why did we trade Panarin? Panarin and Kane were the best complimenting players in the league in my opinion. I predict both Kane and Panarin will have down years from last year. However, the loss of Panarin may get Toews back up close to 70. Panarin is Kane or Kane is Panarin, not a lot of difference with a slight edge to Kane but trading him will haunt the Hawks all year long. As for the others mentioned they are a dime a dozen, sorry.

I think the big story at year end will be why did we trade Panarin? Panarin and Kane were the best complimenting players in the league in my opinion. I predict both Kane and Panarin will have down years from last year. However, the loss of Panarin may get Toews back up close to 70. Panarin is Kane or Kane is Panarin, not a lot of difference with a slight edge to Kane but trading him will haunt the Hawks all year long. As for the others mentioned they are a dime a dozen, sorry.
- joegreif17

Because Toews was the only guy on the top line that went to the tough areas, won board battles, etc. He had essentially no one to compliment him. With Saad, I think you'll go back to seeing complimenting each other and driving the cycle down low like they did so strongly when we won the cup in 2015. You traded Panarin to help Toews and solidify your top line. Kane, as we all know, can play with anyone, and inherently makes anyone better better than what Toews can. The depth on the third and fourth line will be ok. The issue isn't trading Panarin, the issue is the defensive pairings and the goaltending that will be suspect I believe all year long...

just wanted to share a story that Aaron Dater told on his last BSN Avalanche Podcast this week.

Before Roy was traded to the Avs that year, the Hawks had a deal in place for him, Belfour straight up.

those could have been trades in hockey history stories are always super interesting

Panerin was "found money". Kane makes everybody around him better. Toews has struggled the last two years without Saad. Toews should have a much much better year.

Kane will be fantastic. Book it. He's a hockey savant. Incredible player no matter who he is with.

The immediate thought after reading your latest break down is, well
This is broken down farther and both of us I believe make astute observations -

The new members and a new style of play in forechecking points to this when considering the role your favorite prospect may assume should he be recalled.

Specifically, I am thinking DeBrincat and Fortin not pushed even a tad before ready. Let them earn it down in Rockford, a quick cup of coffee notwithstanding. The right place, the right time me everyone will be more comfortable and ready to contribute in the new aggressive for checking venture.

Among dman, is it possible that should a physical dman be necessary due to injury or what have you, gasp If still around Svedberg......I am not going there. In fact, I think it is more realistic to see Gustafsson get in the mix should reinforcements arrive.

If at all even only somewhat sensible, I foresee SAMUELSON WORKING WITH kids on defense. Perhaps a kid starts at Rockford, but the big show is where big improvement comes for a Rutuu and Forsling. One of them may start in Rockford because there is always Pokka lurking and maybe ready to try the NHL. But the athleticism and pro experience might mean Ruutu will settle in. Forsling seems to be written in to the line up by many, but maybe he needs lots of TOI and confidence from playing Rockford?

I am trusting Samuelson will help the kids progress nicely. But among forwards any recalls need to fit into the niche they can succeed in playing. DeBrincat and Fortin should not be 4th line or even third line guys. Well maybe third line at first. But for the team to carry a new identity and to win, recalls fit into slots. The Q line shuffling will be interesting to see. Who makes the team on fourth line and whom is a healthy scratch may be determined in their propensity to play a certain style

Maybe Hayden and Baun fit better here than DeBrincat and Fortin. Should Sharp go down - and he has concussion and other injury past couple years - whom might fill in. I suppose it is linked to what style Sharp is playing. If DeBrincat and Fortin need more seasoning, maybe a recall means Hayden is told to play an abrasive game but you hope he might chip in offensively.

It will be interesting how it all plays out

I think the big story at year end will be why did we trade Panarin? Panarin and Kane were the best complimenting players in the league in my opinion. I predict both Kane and Panarin will have down years from last year. However, the loss of Panarin may get Toews back up close to 70. Panarin is Kane or Kane is Panarin, not a lot of difference with a slight edge to Kane but trading him will haunt the Hawks all year long. As for the others mentioned they are a dime a dozen, sorry.
- joegreif17

The #1 reason the trade was made was cuz Panarin will be a UFA after two more seasons, they couldn't pay him. Saad on the other hand is signed at what is now a fair rate for 4 more yrs at 6 mil per. ..... Cost certainty for 4 more yrs was the #1 reason.

#2 Kane can produce with anyone and this was a 1 line team. Saad back with Toews gives them a real chance at 2 certain scoring lines.

#3 Saad is a bigger, faster, heavier player than Pan. As JJ pointed out the last couple months the Hawks are looking to get bigger, faster and heavier, they do that swapping Pan for Saad.

Not saying this will be the right move but I understand it and agree with it. The thing I like most about it is StanBow has become proactive as opposed to reactive. Instead of inching towards the cliff with Pan he moved him for fair value before that happened as opposed to waiting too long for anything close to fair value. Same with Hammer.

JJ, have you mentioned a culture change in any of your blogs during the offseason? A more crash, bang, north-south speed, pressure laden roster can change the culture. That kind of style can filter up and down a lineup.

Guys like Wingels, Bouma, Dauphin, Panik, Hartman and to a lesser degree Saad and if Hayden cracks the lineup you have 6-7 guys who get after it. All of a sudden you have a group that looks to create from disruption, puck battles, energy and physical play as well as finesse/skill.

And we might see more bodying up from Dmen and less stick checking from Dmen under Samuelsson. ....... No doubt speed and skill rule the sport but having a culture that allows for a more diversified style changes the culture of a group.

Can anyone win a face off besides 19? If not the forechecking will need to be better than promoted as possession starts at the dot.

The #1 reason the trade was made was cuz Panarin will be a UFA after two more seasons, they couldn't pay him. Saad on the other hand is signed at what is now a fair rate for 4 more yrs at 6 mil per. ..... Cost certainty for 4 more yrs was the #1 reason.

#2 Kane can produce with anyone and this was a 1 line team. Saad back with Toews gives them a real chance at 2 certain scoring lines.

#3 Saad is a bigger, faster, heavier player than Pan. As JJ pointed out the last couple months the Hawks are looking to get bigger, faster and heavier, they do that swapping Pan for Saad.

Not saying this will be the right move but I understand it and agree with it. The thing I like most about it is StanBow has become proactive as opposed to reactive. Instead of inching towards the cliff with Pan he moved him for fair value before that happened as opposed to waiting too long for anything close to fair value. Same with Hammer.
- Mr Ricochet

You guys are drinking too much Kool Aid, Kane can play with anybody but two years before Panarin he scored 69 and 64 points. Two years with Panarin he scored 89 and 106. Please explain why Panarin did not make a difference! Kane will be back in the 65-70 point range this year and you already know why.

You guys are drinking too much Kool Aid, Kane can play with anybody but two years before Panarin he scored 69 and 64 points. Two years with Panarin he scored 89 and 106. Please explain why Panarin did not make a difference! Kane will be back in the 65-70 point range this year and you already know why.
- joegreif17

You do realize that Kane played in 69 games when he got the 69 points (on pace for 82 points if he had played all 82 games) and 61 games when he got the 64 points (on pace for 86 points). So he has been at least a 1.00 PPG player the past four seasons.

Yes, two seasons ago he scored 106 points with Panarin on his opposite wing yet he "came back down to earth" last season with 89 points (both seasons in 82 games each). Points over the past four years: 82, 86, 106, 89.

Another factor when he scored 100+ points is that he had a quite a bit of motivation to put his game in overdrive (with or without Panarin) after a horrid off season filled with allegations, media scrutiny, etc.

More importantly, though, as others have explained, getting Toews back on track with the Saad re-acquisition helps the team have two scoring lines instead of one. Even if Kane played with two less than stellar linemates, the other team is still going to put some of their best defenders on the ice to neutralize him. That opponent is in trouble if the Toews like with Saad and Panik click as projected.

Hey there John-Boy! You didnt have to spend all Saturday researching Bouma , you could have just Pm'd me, Seeing as how were Buds and all and you have expressed having alot of respect for my opinion many times in the past.I would have told you he sucks but on a good team like the Hawks he'll do fine on the fourth line with good players.
Next time. Cheers

You do realize that Kane played in 69 games when he got the 69 points (on pace for 82 points if he had played all 82 games) and 61 games when he got the 64 points (on pace for 86 points). So he has been at least a 1.00 PPG player the past four seasons.

Yes, two seasons ago he scored 106 points with Panarin on his opposite wing yet he "came back down to earth" last season with 89 points (both seasons in 82 games each). Points over the past four years: 82, 86, 106, 89.

Another factor when he scored 100+ points is that he had a quite a bit of motivation to put his game in overdrive (with or without Panarin) after a horrid off season filled with allegations, media scrutiny, etc.

More importantly, though, as others have explained, getting Toews back on track with the Saad re-acquisition helps the team have two scoring lines instead of one. Even if Kane played with two less than stellar linemates, the other team is still going to put some of their best defenders on the ice to neutralize him. That opponent is in trouble if the Toews like with Saad and Panik click as projected.
- AEL_Fox

And looking for a quality grinding center for much of those first earlier two seasons - Anisimov may be better at 3rd line than 2nd, but he works with Kane.

JJ, have you mentioned a culture change in any of your blogs during the offseason? A more crash, bang, north-south speed, pressure laden roster can change the culture. That kind of style can filter up and down a lineup.

1) Guys like Wingels, Bouma, Dauphin, Panik, Hartman and to a lesser degree Saad and if Hayden cracks the lineup you have 6-7 guys who get after it. All of a sudden you have a group that looks to create from disruption, puck battles, energy and physical play as well as finesse/skill.

2) And we might see more bodying up from Dmen and less stick checking from Dmen under Samuelsson. ....... No doubt speed and skill rule the sport but having a culture that allows for a more diversified style changes the culture of a group.
- Mr Ricochet

Yes and yes.

Murphy had 200 hits last year.

You point out something very important—and probably better than I did in the blog. Bowman didn't go out and acquire these guys to finish checks as a reflection of worse possession, or to drag it down (chicken meet egg).

More, I think, that the team has been pushed around the ice a lot especially between the whistles, and not just the usual stupid "rough stuff" but as you point out, but losing puck battles, shrinking away from puck scrums along the wall, and, yes—the finesse guys having a real big target on their backs with no fear of recrimination.

Tootoo can't be on the ice when Kane or Toews or Schmaltz are, much less even just on the bench every night.

And it's wrong to just say it's about retaliation or deterrence. It's about having guys out there who can attract the "crap" away from your top guys (like Bouma and Wingels and Mpurphy and Dan Carcillo used to be very good at it) by how they disrupt and antagonize.

I don't know how this chemistry experiment is going to turn out, but there is a very strong argument that you can improve a team dramatically through adding the right kind of depth (and not forcing rookies who try to play a top 6 game stylistically into bottom 6 roles), getting bigger, faster and a lot tougher to play against. Blocking more shots, etc.

That it's not just a simple calculation of goals lost and goals added.

I still say if you get a 100% healthy Toews and Keith, plop Saad back next to Toews and Kane has a typical Kane season, then the potential is there for this to be a very good team.

How "very good" then depends on the Murphys, Kempnys, Paniks and Schmaltzes and their growth over the course of the year.

Hey there John-Boy! You didnt have to spend all Saturday researching Bouma , you could have just Pm'd me, Seeing as how were Buds and all and you have expressed having alot of respect for my opinion many times in the past.I would have told you he sucks but on a good team like the Hawks he'll do fine on the fourth line with good players.
Next time. Cheers
- Larsson_fan

Ha, duly noted and saved for future reference.

Can anyone win a face off besides 19? If not the forechecking will need to be better than promoted as possession starts at the dot.
- weakglovehand

I think this is a BIG unmet need going into the season.

Personally I think the idea of Bowman getting an established "top 4 defenseman" to occupy Hossa's cap space is a pipe dream. At least not before the TDL, when it could be too late. And no team is going to just GIVE the Hawks that kind of guy in the midst of the season.

I think Bowman will actually (more easily) grab a DEPTH defenseman who can play either side, like a Jon Merrill or a TVR— AND potentially a lower line/PK guy who can do better than 50% in the dot.

And what if, hmmm, Carolina were to send TVR and Marcus Kruger (with some salary retained) back to Chicago?

You never know. While most Hawk fans had no issue with Kruger going elsewhere and he was "overpaid" (ok), but he filled an important, low glamour role that is now unfilled. And not any schmo on the waiver wire can do. And what's the one way you could potentially reduce Kruger's salary—reacquire him with salary retained form a team that's below the cap. Not saying it will happen, but it could.

There is no feasible secondary faceoff option for the Hawks right now, especially on the PK. The ONLY guy who can potentially step up into that role (feasibly) is Dauphin or possibly Kero but I'm not buying Kero based on a limited sample size in the playoffs last year.

If you're jonesing for some hockey the USA vs CZE in the U-17 5 Nations Gold Medal game is in the 3rd period tied at 3. http://www.hokej.cz/tv/hokejka/video/2579

If you're jonesing for some hockey the USA vs CZE in the U-17 5 Nations Gold Medal game is in the 3rd period tied at 3. http://www.hokej.cz/tv/hokejka/video/2579
- Mr Ricochet

I just hit the link and saw gloves and sticks all over the ice. Thought there was a rumble going on. But no, looks like the US won and is celebrating.

I think this is a BIG unmet need going into the season.

Personally I think the idea of Bowman getting an established "top 4 defenseman" to occupy Hossa's cap space is a pipe dream. At least not before the TDL, when it could be too late. And no team is going to just GIVE the Hawks that kind of guy in the midst of the season.

I think Bowman will actually (more easily) grab a DEPTH defenseman who can play either side, like a Jon Merrill or a TVR— AND potentially a lower line/PK guy who can do better than 50% in the dot.

And what if, hmmm, Carolina were to send TVR and Marcus Kruger (with some salary retained) back to Chicago?

You never know. While most Hawk fans had no issue with Kruger going elsewhere and he was "overpaid" (ok), but he filled an important, low glamour role that is now unfilled. And not any schmo on the waiver wire can do. And what's the one way you could potentially reduce Kruger's salary—reacquire him with salary retained form a team that's below the cap. Not saying it will happen, but it could.

There is no feasible secondary faceoff option for the Hawks right now, especially on the PK. The ONLY guy who can potentially step up into that role (feasibly) is Dauphin or possibly Kero but I'm not buying Kero based on a limited sample size in the playoffs last year.
- John Jaeckel

Did the Hawks invite Franson to camp as non rostered?

As I look down the UFA list on CapFriendly, that list is long

Seems to me the changes are based on building a playoff team that can win and contend in the post season- not win Kane another Trophy to be handed out in Vegas in June.

The Nashville shellacking may be a blessing in disguise.